A Nightmare on Elm Street

It's nearly Halloween which means the pumpkins have arrived, ghoulish spiders and skeletons are decorating homes up and down the block, and my neighbors' kids have begun to walk by my house on the way to school dressed as Spiderman, Mario Brothers, and Harry Potter. (The little girls seem to live in princess dresses year round from what I can tell).

I'm reminded of my sons' Halloween costumes, which try as I might to dissuade them, always seemed to begin and end with the gnarliest weapons. As they aged out of preschool, they quickly left behind the innocent adornments of firemen and Knights of the Round Table to become far more sinister ninjas, grim reapers, and ax murderers. Sadly, I had no vote in the matter, and consequently, a collection of the world's most adorable costumes a dear friend had passed along, were left unworn and unappreciated.

As we head towards All Hallow's Eve, autumn has definitely arrived, and the Fall Market is bustling. In Piedmont, there are currently 19 properties Actively Listed or Coming Soon, with an additional 14 homes presently pending. In fact, Piedmont is enjoying one of the most robust Fall Markets we've experienced since COVID. Despite stubbornly high interest rates, well-qualified folks are still choosing to move, and that's good news for Sellers.

Even so, 20% of Bay Area listings have experienced price reductions; confirming that pricing matters - perhaps more than ever! Here are some other "tricky" points to consider, courtesy of Patrick Carlisle - COMPASS' exclusive statistician: Approximately 6,300 active listings in the Bay Area (about 60% of listing inventory) have been on the market for more than 30 days (excluding Coming Soon), 3,750 listings (35%) have been on the market for more than 60 days; 2,500 listings (24%) for more than 90 days; and 800 properties have been on the market for more than six months!

In higher-price ranges, the numbers are still more sobering: 36% of $5m - $9.999m priced listings, and 56% of the 180 $10m+ active listings have been on the market for at least 4+ months. 37% of $10m+ listings have cumulative DOM (days on market) above 6 months, which is true in Piedmont, as well. Far from being easy sells, these grand estates can take months, if not years to transfer ownership, especially if the Sellers refuse to adjust their expectations.

Happily, Sarah and I currently have five properties in escrow (all of which sold in competition), precisely because we priced strategically and then let the market respond appropriately. Moreover, we had fantastic Sellers who understood the prevailing dynamics and didn't let greed lead the way. Laying the groundwork, providing context, and educating Sellers is critically important in this regard.

Speaking of which, it's not too soon to contact us NOW if you are considering a move in the coming year. The advantage is that when you reach out early we can very likely prioritize your goals, and bring your home to market well ahead of the competition. Additionally, we can begin to gather bids and quotes, schedule inspections, set a budget for repairs or improvements, and calendar events to coincide with your optimal timing, whenever that may be.

Unfortunately, Sellers who delay until January and February to "get the ball rolling" must often wait until April or May to see their homes make it to market as the painter, contractors, and stagers book their calendars early. In short, you have many more options with a longer runway at your disposal (as do we).

As for the coming year, what do Sarah and I expect in 2025?

Like all of you, we're waiting with bated breath. The truth is we have no idea if the presidential election will positively or negatively impact the housing market (or if it will affect it at all) but it does feel like we're potentially entering "A Nightmare on Elm Street." (Make sure to vote!) which is why a proactive approach is always the best course of action.

But putting aside the election, what are some of the most "nightmarish" examples we've experienced during the past two decades of selling homes?

Everything from Owners having passed away on the property, to decomposing rats in the attic, to houses that have been left to degrade to the point of no return, to FAILURE TO DISCLOSE RELEVANT AND MATERIAL INFORMATION! (Don't do that.) But perhaps the most alarming issue to emerge in 2024 has been the rising cost of insurance. (It's been positively spooky!)

The ability (or inability) to insure a home is as great a hurdle as the increased interest rates have become, and is quickly becoming the major impediment in the home-selling process. As such, we think it’s important that both Sellers and Buyers understand the roadblocks to standard insurance which include wood-shake roofs (regardless of age), overhanging tree limbs, fire and flood zones, high-risk locations, the presence of any knob and tube wiring (live or not), lead pipes, crumbling foundations, and outdated HVAC systems.

​All or any of these components can render the property nearly impossible to insure, which has made for some interesting negotiations while parties scramble to meet the insurance requirements. This is a significant development and not going away anytime soon. In other words, if your property displays any of these red flags, you should seriously consider addressing them before bringing the house to market, or be prepared to discount accordingly.

And on that note, I think I'll break out the candy . . . because I prefer to deliver tough news with sweets on hand.

Trick or Treat? It's getting tricky out there, which is why we're here to help you safely navigate the journey and provide solutions wherever possible. With two decades under our belts, we've been trained to think about the "what ifs" and how best to avoid the scary outcomes.

​Happy Halloween!​

How can we help you?