Jet Lag

I arrived back from England on Monday, having spent a week touring spectacular country estates and gardens with my sister, Jill. It was both a celebration of our upcoming birthday (65 years - yikes!) and a going-away gift for Jill, who plans to retire to Spain come fall. I'm both excited for her and distinctly aware that she's simply irreplaceable. Jill is not only my closest sibling, she's my right-hand man and my best friend. As identical twins, you tend to move through the world as a pair, never really having to go it alone, so it's going to be strange to have her a continent away (but all the more reason to get to Europe more often). We had a memorable time together and I'm sure there are many more adventures, not to mention more chapters ahead.

However, it seems that the older I get, the tougher the reentry. After time away, jet lag is real - both in life and in Real Estate - and it's the "lag" many people are having trouble with. Everyone wants the results their neighbors had in 2021-2022 when interest rates were 3% or less (Those days are gone for the foreseeable future.) When you enter the marketplace once every decade or so, it's difficult to understand exactly how everything works. Moreover, the full-scale production we now bring to the process can be incredibly complicated. It truly takes a village.

On Tuesday morning at our weekly COMPASS meeting, we're routinely updated on interest rates, pending sales, and the market as a whole. This week, the discussions encompassed the noticeable decline in loan applications; a clear signal that there are suddenly fewer Buyers in the marketplace. After months of stock market volatility, political unrest, and ongoing conflicts on both a national and a global level, Buyers may be taking a pause and pulling back while they wait for more positive resolutions. In short, it's their own version of jet lag.

That's not entirely surprising as the real estate market tends to follow stock market trends by about six months, and we're now headed into July. Moreover, real estate is cyclical by nature. The spring market begins in earnest right after the Super Bowl in late January and climbs quickly. It then levels out by May and begins to drop right after the Fourth of July when families go away for long stretches of time. Once the school year begins, so does the Fall Market which runs straight into the Thanksgiving holidays. Finally, December (the Winter Market) typically slows down considerably, offering very little housing stock, with the exception of stress sales, which are those that often come about via death, divorce, or job transfer. Come the new year, the cycle begins anew . . . .

Here in the East Bay, 2025 has seen mixed results. Some offerings have continued to prosper with multiple offers, while other properties have found little to no interest, resulting in price reductions that force the Sellers to chase the market down. On the flip side, there's a fair bit of nesting that seems to have also found its way into the market while both investors and homeowners search for security and dependability. Perhaps it's the sense of "home" we're all craving.

Be that as it may, jumping in when others pause and become more conservative may be the smart thing to do. Fewer Buyers mean less competition on the offer date, which can and often does translate into softening values on both sides of the equation. Only time will tell . . . .

As for me, I'm getting a lot done in the wee hours of the morning, and that's when I'm most productive anyway. Now, if I could just get some sleep . . . .

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