JULIE GARDNER
  • HOME
  • COMPASS
    • WHY COMPASS?
    • COMPASS CONCIERGE
    • COMPASS BRIDGE LOANS
  • LISTINGS
  • ABOUT
    • ABOUT JULIE
    • A DYNAMIC PARTNERSHIP
    • CONTACT
    • PROCESS
    • TESTIMONIALS
    • PRESS
  • PROJECTS
    • BEFORE & AFTER
    • GARDENS
    • OUR TEAM
    • VIDEOS
  • BLOG
  • COMMUNITY
    • UTILITIES
    • SCHOOLS

2020 in the Rearview Mirror

12/31/2020

0 Comments

 
Years ago, I worked for a Broker who was fond of reminding his Agents that "the market is only ever revealed when looking at it through a rear-view mirror." Now with nearly two decades of selling real estate under my belt, that sentiment has never been more true than it was in 2020.

In a year that delivered a devastating pandemic, a hotly-contested presidential election, spelled bankruptcy for an untold number of small businesses and restaurants, created stock market volatility, set our state on fire (quite literally), sent protestors into the streets to demand social justice, and laid bare the stark discrepancies between the "haves" and "have nots," high-end Real Estate may have been one of the few winners, which is surprising given that the "Shelter-in-Place" order Governor Newsom decreed on March 3, essentially stopped us dead in our tracks, spring traditionally being a Realtor's most productive season.
Properties that were set to debut in March and April 2020 couldn't be painted, couldn't be staged, couldn't be photographed and couldn't be seen in person, and those already on the market, twisted silently in the wind, while nervous Sellers wrung their hands with deep concern. (You weren't alone.) And when the growing fires that spread across Oregon, Washington, California, Wyoming, and Montana blocked out the sun, made the air tough to breath, and rained ash down upon us, we were forced back inside once again in what felt like Armageddon. To put it mildly, things looked, well . . . rather bleak.

In the words of Scooby-Do,"Ruh Roh."

However, when government municipalities realized that the only incoming revenue would likely arrive as a result of transfer taxes, Realtors quickly became "essential workers," followed a few weeks later by our vendors who help prepare, market and move our clients from one property to the next. Consequently, motivated Buyers could, once again, view homes in person, albeit with heavy restrictions in place. In short, we were back in business and business BOOMED!

Those who were in an economic position to make adjustments to the mandated quarantine quickly moved into action and set about making meaningful changes that often meant larger houses that provided home offices, classrooms, and yards to accommodate "social distancing" and kids at play. City dwellers moved to Oakland, and Oakland residents migrated through the tunnel to Lafayette, Marin, Tahoe, and environs much further afield. . . .

Additionally, second/investment homes enjoyed an unexpected uptick as international travel was nearly eliminated altogether. If we weren't allowed to vacation abroad, we were escaping to Sonoma, St. Helena, Inverness, Sun Valley, Tahoe, or in my case, Fallen Leaf Lake. (Some of you were actually making it to Hawaii or Mexico. Aloha and Ola!)

While "fear" is typically the precursor to a correction, in this case, it actually created a surge in demand. And while housing stock may have been scarce during the first and second quarters, any shortfall was soon made up in the third, and fourth periods as Realtors and clients alike became better at navigating the rules around showings, preparations, and sales, while the stock market came roaring back. (Go figure.)

In spite of recent headlines stating that November sales were down 23% (November sales are always down due to the holidays), per the MLS (Multiple Listing Service), Piedmont recorded 126 sold or pending sales between January 1 and December 31, 2020. By comparison,120 homes sold in the same period in 2019. In other words, Piedmont actually came out ahead.

More revealing, the price of homes in Piedmont went up considerably. While the average sales price in 2019 was approximately $2,430,000; in 2020, the average sales price climbed to approximately $2,787,000, which represented a 14.7% increase in home sales prices for the calendar year ("average" being a relative concept), all while an invisible and virulent virus raged on (and still does).

What's likely to happen in 2021?

Your guess is as good as mine.

Per the Feds, interest rates are guaranteed to stay historically low at least through 2021, demand is likely to remain high, and the Bay Area as a whole, should continue to attract a highly-skilled, well-paid, and educated group of Buyers - many employed in the tech industry - which tends to keep our Bay Area market more robust. Moreover, the passage of Proposition 19, set to go into effect April 1, 2021 makes it possible for those over 55 to take their lower tax base with them anywhere in the state of California, which should potentially free up some much-needed inventory. In short, if you are thinking of selling, now is a great time to do so.

Unfortunately, it's tougher news for Buyers, who found themselves in heavy competition throughout 2020 and often came up on the losing end. In hindsight, those who bought in the first quarter bested the marketplace, while those who prevailed at all, counted themselves lucky.

Will the market remain competitive?

If "Supply & Demand" are the ONLY factors that count, 2021 should prove equally dynamic.

Still, at some point, I gotta believe that Americans will need to "pay the Piper" for the heavy debts incurred during the time of Covid (we're not done yet racking up the TRILLIONS in costs). With record-breaking unemployment, a high number of mortgages and rents in arrears, foreclosures gearing up, Coronavirus still very much at play, and a sea of "unknowns" on the horizon, wouldn't it be reasonable to assume that the status quo will shift in the not-too-distant future? It should. (Full disclosure, I'm not an economist, financial planner, or a fortune teller, so this is one Realtor's opinion only.)

That being said, Covid-19 didn't affect everyone the same. In fact, buoyed by my new partnership with Sarah Abel, our team had its best year ever - as did COMPASS - now 19,000 Agents strong. However, I'm acutely aware that not everyone fared as well. While the Coronavirus didn't discriminate based on class, as is too often the case, those in the upper tier, while certainly inconvenienced, had choices that those in the bread lines, unemployment lines, and on the front lines did not.

So while we seek to make sense of 2020 (Is that even possible?) here's to 2021: to widespread Coronavirus vaccinations, to job growth, to expanded healthcare, to unrestricted travel, to school openings, to government-sponsored daycare, to team sports, to movie theaters, to indoor dining, to social gatherings, to mental health, to greater equity, to family holidays, to joyful celebrations, to tearful reunions, to hugs and kisses, to a new normal, to enough food on the table, to banding together, to decency, kindness and civility, and to what lies ahead.  I'm relieved to see 2020 in the rearview mirror. Perhaps the aftermath of 2020 presents a chance to finally get it right.

Here's to new beginnings. (We've earned them the hard way.) Happy New Year!

How can we help you?
0 Comments

Your comment will be posted after it is approved.


Leave a Reply.

    Subscribe

    Author

    Julie Gardner, has been writing The Perspective for 18 years and has published more than 775 humorous but always informative, essays on life and real estate. 

    Picture

    Archives

    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012
    November 2012
    October 2012
    September 2012
    August 2012
    July 2012
    June 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012
    December 2011
    November 2011
    October 2011
    September 2011
    August 2011
    July 2011
    June 2011
    May 2011
    April 2011
    March 2011
    February 2011
    January 2011
    December 2010
    November 2010
    October 2010
    September 2010
    August 2010
    July 2010
    June 2010
    May 2010
    April 2010
    March 2010
    February 2010
    January 2010
    December 2009
    November 2009
    October 2009
    September 2009
    August 2009
    July 2009
    June 2009
    May 2009
    April 2009
    March 2009
    February 2009
    January 2009
    December 2008
    November 2008
    October 2008
    September 2008
    August 2008
    July 2008
    June 2008
    May 2008
    April 2008
    March 2008

    Categories

    All
    Business
    Design
    Drought
    Holiday
    Home Maintenance
    Homes For Sale
    Life
    Market
    Politics
    Renovation

    RSS Feed

    View my profile on LinkedIn
Piedmont · Oakland · Berkeley
 510.326.0840
[email protected]
DRE# 01431765
​COMPASS

  • HOME
  • COMPASS
    • WHY COMPASS?
    • COMPASS CONCIERGE
    • COMPASS BRIDGE LOANS
  • LISTINGS
  • ABOUT
    • ABOUT JULIE
    • A DYNAMIC PARTNERSHIP
    • CONTACT
    • PROCESS
    • TESTIMONIALS
    • PRESS
  • PROJECTS
    • BEFORE & AFTER
    • GARDENS
    • OUR TEAM
    • VIDEOS
  • BLOG
  • COMMUNITY
    • UTILITIES
    • SCHOOLS